ARMED ATTACKS DISPLACE RESIDENTS IN MEXICO, BRAZIL DEBATES STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE, AND BOLIVIA’S LANDFILL BLOCKADE LEAVES 7000 TONS OF WASTE UNMANAGED
- Senior Editor
- Apr 5
- 5 min read
March 27- Apr 2, 2025 | Issue 11 - NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM
Tanner O’Donnell, Tate English, Katya Burklin, Daniela De Luca, John Impallomeni, Kseniya Luzhko, Lydia Baccino, Ashley Snyder, Julia Eder, Jacob Robison, Noah Kuttymartin, Benedetta Magnante Fralleone
Samantha Mikulskis, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor
In an effort to bring you the most actionable analytical information, we are combining regions in order to focus our efforts on a multitude of projects. The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) will continue to meet the challenges of the current threat environment as worldwide geopolitical shifts demand that we stay agile and flexible.
Armed Groups' Drone Attacks[1]
Date: March 26, 2025
Location: Apatzingan, Michoacan State, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico federal government; Mexican authorities; Michoacan state government; Mexican civilians; Apatzingan law enforcement; non-displaced five families in Apatzingan; Apatzingan residents; organized crime groups (OCGs) in Mexico; criminal organizations operating in Michoacan; Mexican armed group Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
The event: Armed attacks and the collapse of basic services drove displacement in El Alcalde, Apatzingan, leaving only five families in the community.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
By forcing the displacement of Apatzingan residents through armed attacks, OCGs will very likely aim to expand their illicit activities unhindered, very likely taking advantage of reduced oversight in the depopulated areas. Criminal organizations will almost certainly establish physical control mechanisms immediately after displacement, including roadblocks, surveillance points, and armed patrols, transforming highways and communication hubs into trafficking corridors and operational bases to scale operations with mitigated risk. These tactical advances will likely evolve into strategic dominance as groups establish parallel governance systems, including unofficial security forces, extortion networks, and illicit taxation to enforce control and compel compliance from residents. The systematic occupation of these territories will very likely erode state legitimacy beyond Apatzingan, likely triggering regional economic subordination to illicit markets, creating semi-autonomous zones resistant to government intervention, and establishing a replicable model of territorial acquisition that criminal organizations can deploy throughout Michoacan.
Criminal organizations operating in Michoacan, such as the CJNG, are very likely escalating their use of drone-deployed explosives as a primary tactic, given their cost-efficiency, difficulty to detect, and ability to target communities with minimal risk. This strategy will likely outpace government countermeasures, as criminal organizations adapt drone tactics faster than authorities can adjust defenses due to fewer constraints, such as legal restrictions and resource allocation. Beyond short-term tactical advantages, drone operations likely give criminal organizations leverage in maintaining control over rural areas with limited law enforcement presence, likely using sustained aerial threats to undermine government efforts to reestablish authority. This advantage very likely constrains existing counter-drone efforts in Michoacan, as government drone jammers very likely offer limited defense to civilians due to their limited coverage area, high costs, and logistical challenges.
Lacking electricity, the non-displaced five families will almost certainly face crop failures, very likely forcing them to negotiate with criminal groups for sustainable food, ultimately placing them in a cycle of dependency. Without functioning irrigation systems, crop yields will very likely decrease by 60-70%, significantly undermining their food security and self-sufficiency in this isolated environment. Criminal organizations will very likely exploit this vulnerability by offering immediate food relief and protection in exchange for loyalty or involvement in illicit activities, likely establishing a power imbalance. This dependency will very likely extend beyond survival needs to include the conscription of family members into criminal operations while likely deterring families from leaving due to the high risk of violence and starvation without criminal protection.
Date: March 30, 2025
Location: Brazil
Parties involved: Brazil; Brazilian government; Brazilian government agencies; Brazilian healthcare facilities; lawful Bitcoin businesses; South America; criminal networks in the tri-border area; organized crime groups (OCgs) in the tri-border area; terrorist groups in the tri-border area; Argentina; Paraguay; Panama; cybercriminal groups; hackers; threat actors; North Korean cyber group UNC4899
The event: The Brazilian government is debating the creation of a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve, adding the cryptocurrency to its national treasury reserves as a state asset.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The discussed adoption of Bitcoin as a national asset will likely increase the risk of financial crime in Brazil, likely creating new opportunities for money laundering across South America. OCgs and terrorist groups in the tri-border area will likely exploit cryptocurrencies’ pseudonymity and disintermediation to convert illicit money into Bitcoin, likely to reduce the risk of seizure compared to financial tools like bank transfers. Bitcoin’s increased legitimacy and widespread use will likely facilitate mining operations as it becomes integrated into Brazil’s official financial system, likely allowing such criminal networks to infiltrate lawful Bitcoin businesses to launder and transfer illicit funds across borders. These groups will likely rely on converted or mined Bitcoins to move illicit proceeds between countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and tax havens like Panama, very likely to obscure and fund activities like arms trafficking and terrorism financing while enhancing their transnational operativity.
Brazil’s adoption of Bitcoin as a recognized currency will very likely be a target for cybercriminal groups leveraging ransomware, likely focusing on healthcare facilities and government agencies to exploit sensitive information. Hackers will likely use phishing scams and pose as government representatives to bypass Bitcoin’s security measures and prompt the disclosure of sensitive information. As digital reserve assets become prime cyber targets, they will very likely draw threat actors like North Korea’s UNC4899, very likely exploiting blockchain and decentralized finance to anonymize hacking activities and manipulate transactions. These attacks will likely focus on the smart contracts securing Brazilian healthcare facilities and government agencies, likely compromising sensitive financial data and facilitating large-scale thefts of Bitcoin reserves from institutional wallets.
Date: April 1, 2025
Location: Cochabamba, Cercado Province, Bolivia
Parties involved: Bolivian government; Municipal Cleaning Services Company (EMSA); Bolivian healthcare facilities; Cochamba law enforcement; Cochamba locals; Cochabamba local scavengers; transnational organized crime groups (TOCgs); TOCgs members; Colombian paramilitary group Peasant Self-Defense of Casanare (ACC); Colombian paramilitary group Gulf Clan
The event: A 10-day blockade at the K’ara K’ara landfill has led to the accumulation of over 7000 tons of waste, exceeding the amount of garbage the EMSA can safely manage.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The prevention of proper waste disposal will very likely contaminate the groundwater with toxic liquid, likely increasing pressure on healthcare facilities. The contaminated groundwater used in crop production will very likely heighten the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera, almost certainly increasing local demand for antibiotics. The rising use of antibiotics will very likely reduce treatment effectiveness over time in case of repeated infection, likely overextending underprepared healthcare facilities and leaving locals without adequate medical treatment. This treatment shortage will likely hinder effective infection control and exacerbate the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains, likely raising the local mortality rate and increasing the risk of future health crises.
TOCgs such as the ACC and Gulf Clan will very likely use the K’ara K’ara landfill blockade to exploit local scavengers, likely enhancing their control of illicit operations in the Cochabamba region. These groups will very likely continue to capitalize on waste management systems, likely integrating illicit recycling operations with informal scavenging sectors to boost TOC profits at the expense of low-income locals. These expanded operations will very likely expose local scavengers to more sophisticated forms of waste operations by drawing them into complex transnational money laundering networks, including using waste profits to conceal illicit trafficking and facilitating cross-border transactions. With locals contributing to illicit operations, TOCgs will very likely become the primary providers of essential services like safety and economic support, likely displacing law enforcement and government as the go-to authorities for locals' needs.
[1] U.S. service members observe new drone capabilities at MCAGCC, by Lance Cpl. Richard PerezGarcia, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.) (This image pixelation has been enhanced by a third-party.)
[2] Forced displacement and armed attacks in Apatzingán leave almost uninhabited community, denounces civil organization, Infobae, March 2025, https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2025/03/27/desplazamiento-forzado-y-ataques-armados-en-apatzingan-dejan-comunidad-casi-deshabitada-denuncia-organizacion-civil/ (translated by Google)
[3] Brazilian Government Evaluates Integration of Bitcoin into National Treasury Holdings, Coinfomania, March 2025,
[4] K’ara K’ara: 10 días de bloqueo dejan 7 mil t de basura en vías, 20 en hospitales, Los Tiempos, April 2025, https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/cochabamba/20250401/kara-kara-10-dias-bloqueo-dejan-7-mil-t-basura-vias-20-hospitales (translated by Google)
