August 15-21, 2024 | Issue 33 - CENTCOM/PACOM
William Adams, Janthe Van Schaik, Joe Pollard, Hae Lim Park, Madeline Thompson
Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Vehicle-borne Improvised Explosive Device[1]
Date: August 16, 2024
Location: Abyan Province, Yemen
Parties involved: Yemen; Yemen Internationally Recognized Government (IRG); currently IRG-allied separatist group Southern Transitional Council (STC); STC spokesperson Mohammad al-Naqib; Al-Qaeda; Al-Qaeda affiliate group, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Yemen; Yemeni civilians
The event: On Friday, a bomb blast claimed by AQAP killed at least 16 STC fighters and wounded 18. A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeted an STC site in southern Yemen in Abyan province, according to al-Naqib. The US labeled AQAP the most dangerous of Al-Qaeda affiliates and the group often attacks Yemeni security forces and Western targets.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
AQAP will very likely launch more attacks against STC forces and allied forces to expand its controlled territory and influence. AQAP will likely target Ahwar, Al Khabr, and Azzan districts to push out STC and pro-government forces, very likely attacking both military and civilian targets. AQAP will likely use improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and VBIDs to attack military fortifications, aiming to cause the maximum amount of destruction and weaken STC defenses and morale.
Increased clashes between AQAP and STC forces will almost certainly disrupt the humanitarian aid flow and very likely impede the local populations’ access to food and healthcare. Clashes between STC and pro-government separatists and AQAP will very likely cause a mass displacement of civilians into makeshift refugee camps, very likely increasing the risk of spreading diseases like cholera. The disruption of humanitarian aid and NGOs' assistance, along with extreme weather conditions that threaten the agricultural sector, will almost certainly raise the threat of severe famine and increase the prevalence of malnutrition and deaths from starvation.
AQAP attacking an STC military installation using a VBIED almost certainly signifies a tactical shift away from a focus on high-profile assassination attempts towards more widespread confrontations. AQAP retaining the material capacity to launch such attacks very likely demonstrates shortcomings with the STC counter-terrorism operation in Abyan Province, launched in August 2023. AQAP targeting STC forces likely aims to soften areas of STC control and exacerbate tensions between STC and IRG by undermining the former’s ability to project power throughout the Abyan Province.
Date: August 19, 2024
Location: Sabina Shoal, South China Sea
Parties involved: Philippines; Philippines government; Philippines Coast Guard (PCG); China; Chinese government; China’s Coast Guard (CCG); US military; US regional allies; Vietnam
The event: The Philippines and China accused each other, alleging that each had engaged in ramming vessels and executing dangerous maneuvers. This marks the latest escalation in tension after the Philippines and China reached an agreement to address and manage maritime disputes. The CCG argued that the Philippine vessel ignored its warnings and “deliberately collided” with its vessel in an “unprofessional and dangerous” manner.[3] The Philippines disagreed and blamed the Chinese statement as “imposing its version of facts.”[4] They argued that two of the PCG vessels “encountered unlawful and aggressive maneuvers” from Chinese vessels that were en route to supply Filipino personnel stationed in the nearby islands.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
The resumption of tensions and collisions between PCG and CCG vessels will very likely increase the probability of future collisions around disputed South China Sea areas, such as Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands. Future incidents will very likely see the CCG use water cannons as in previous clashes. Other nations with territorial claims in the South China Sea, such as Vietnam, will likely regard China as a bad faith actor for reportedly reneging on their recent agreement with the Philippines, very likely increasing tensions in the region.
The US will likely view China’s involvement in the recent rise in Filipino/Chinese tensions near the disputed territories as a provocative action. Based on the standing US/Philippines military agreement, the US will very likely consider such Chinese action as an act of aggression against US interests. The US will likely redirect its naval destroyers and military assets to the region as a demonstration of power to prevent escalation and support the Philippines and other regional allies.
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[1] Riot, generated by a third party database
[2] Qaeda Kills 16 Yemeni Pro-government Fighters: Official, Barron’s, August 2024, https://www.barrons.com/news/qaeda-kills-nine-yemeni-pro-government-fighters-officials-dc942272?refsec=topics_afp-news
[3] Philippines, China trade blame after vessels collide in South China Sea, Reuters, August 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-philippine-vessel-deliberately-collided-with-chinese-vessel-south-2024-08-19/
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid